AL 2nd Wild Card Projections: Designated Hitter
The Daily Jay has been using Fangraphs Depth Chart projections to compare the 2nd wild card contenders position-by-position. Today we cover the final position: Designated Hitter.
The Seattle Mariners have the third best DH situation in baseball and are tops among the teams most likely to be in the 2nd wild card race. Nelson Cruz projects to supply 2.4 fWAR of the team's 2.5 total. Cruz was a late bloomer, but has ended up with a long career and continues to defy age. He will turn 38 in July, but shows no signs of slowing down. Cruz has been worth at least 3.7 fWAR each of the past 4 seasons so 2.4 fWAR is certainly a cautious projection. His wrc+ is projected to go from 146 to a still very good 126. If age or injury catch up to Cruz the Mariners will likely turn to Dan Vogelbach. Vogelbach has had good numbers in the minors, but lacks the power you typically see from a first baseman of his girth. Vogelbach is someone I have liked for a while now due to his very good OBP. If he can add some power he could be a very good hitter.
The Athletics have Khris Davis as their DH and he projects to give the team 2.1 fWAR in 2018. The projections see him pretty much replicating what he ahs done the past 2 seasons. Davis is one of the game's top power hitters and should hit roughly 40 home runs if he plays the entire season. The A's don't have a lot of position player depth so they will need a healthy season from Davis because he is one of the keys to their offence.
The Twins got Logan Morrison on a very reasonable contract this offseason and he could prove to be a major steal if he can repeat last year's performance. He was worth 3.3 fWAR for the Rays last season. Morrison added a lot of flyballs to his game and a higher percentage of those balls went for home runs. Before breaking out in 2017 Morrison had very good k/bb rates. Because of his excellent plate discipline I am confident that he can maintain most of the gains he made in 2017. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion had similar k/bb profiles before having power breakouts. The Steamer and Zips projection systems are less confident in Morrison's ability to repeat, but still view him as a solid hitter. Instead of a .270 ISO the two systems combined to see a .217 ISO and a 112 wrc+, down from 130. All told, the depth charts projections see him being worth 1.2 fWAR as a DH. The Twins also have a number of decent candidates to step in at DH should Morrison miss time or have to move to first base or the outfield due to an injury elsewhere on the team. Kennys Vargas and Robbie Grossman project to be roughly league average hitters. Miguel Sano could also factor into the Twins DH situation.
The Rangers project to get 1.1 fWAR at DH, with 0.9 of that coming from Shin-Soo Choo. Choo still gets on base a lot, but his power is below average. All told, he is good for a wrc+ between 100-110. The projections have him down for 106 in 2018. If Choo can't get the job done, the Rangers will probably turn to either Ronald Guzman or Drew Robinson. Willie Calhoun could also be used at DH if the Rangers prefer Robinson in the outfield over him. The team doesn't have a sure-fire replacement for Choo, but they should be able to get by with whoever they end up using.
The Blue Jays project to get 0.9 fWAR at DH with Kendrys Morales providing 0.5 in 546 plate appearances and Steve Pearce giving 0.2 in 140 plate appearances. The depth charts also have Josh Donaldson down for limited time at DH. The projections like Morales' chances of bouncing back after a down year in 2017. His .259/.320/.465 projected slash line is very close to what he did in 2016 with the Royals. Morales would benefit from getting the ball in the air more often because his hr/fb% has been above 19% the past two seasons and his statcast data suggests he has been hitting the ball hard. Morales had a .359 xwOBA last year compared to an actual wOBA of .326. As an extremely slow runner he is likely to underperform his xwOBA, but not to quite such an extent. There wasn't anybody with a .359 wOBA, but Mark Reynolds had a .357 and his slash line of .267/.352/.487 would have made Jays fans quite happy had Morales performed closer to his xwOBA. Steve Pearce is projected to be an even better hitter than Morales in 2018 with a .256/.329/.461 slash line. If Morales misses time with injury, Pearce should provide equal or even better production and the Jays shouldn't have much trouble replacing Pearce's value in the outfield. They don't have the greatest upside at DH among wild card contenders, but they have excellent depth.
The Angels project 0.6 fWAR at DH with a nearly even split of playing time between Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols. Ohtani has struggled badly at the plate in spring training. His projection has him putting up a nearly identical batting line to Kendrys Morales' projection. A 108 wrc+ in 350 PA from Ohtani would be an excellent outcome for the Angels. If Ohtani's bat can't handle major league pitching the Angels will have to rely more heavily on the fading Albert Pujols. Pujols was atrocious last season and had a very bad 78 wrc+. The projections see him bouncing back, but only up to a 92 wrc+. Pujols is off to a poor start this spring and if he is as bad as he was last year the Angels could be in trouble. Chris Carter could be brought in to clean up their DH mess if Pujols and Ohtani can't get the job done. Carter himself had an ugly 2017 so he is no sure thing either. Jeffry Marte, another player who struggled last year also could figure into their DH situation. A lot of uncertainty here for the Angels. They may have to rely on their 4th outfielder Chris Young and find someone else to fill the 4th outfielder position.
When I started this series the Rays still hadn't lost half their top projected performers either to injury or trade. They had pitching depth and that's something that can always make a team surprise people if everything breaks right. They have since lost a lot of that depth with Brent Honeywell and Jose Deleon going down with injuries and Odorizzi being shipped out. In the past 2 weeks they have gone from a dark horse candidate to potential first overall pick contender.
Toronto's DH situation is fairly weak. Morales and Pearce are unlikely to be among the best at the position, but the one thing they have going for them is depth. If Toronto loses their starter they are better equipped to fill the position with an above average hitter than any of the other teams. This is the common theme for this year's Jays. If somebody gets injured the drop off in production isn't going to be as dramatic as it was last year when players went down. This is one of the main reasons the Blue Jays project to be in the wild card conversation this year. They have some high end talent in guys like Donaldson, Stroman and Sanchez and they have surrounded those players with quality talent throughout the entire roster. If the stars stay healthy the entire season and perform to expectations the Jays should be able to have the depth to handle any injuries to their other starters and remain right in the thick of the playoff race all year long.
